Friday, August 28, 2009
as most of you know, i've long held the belief that this would be a "W" or double-dip recession. we are currently in the false recovery part of it, but the second dip is coming guys. get ready.
i'm sure you all know what a leading indicator is, right? if not, a leading indicator is:
An economic indicator that changes before the economy has changed. Examples of leading indicators include production workweek, building permits, unemployment insurance claims, money supply, inventory changes, and stock prices.
the Baltic Dry Index, "is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the Index tracks worldwide international shipping prices of various dry bulk cargoes". it is a much observed and respected leading indicator and it is falling at a quite noticeable rate, just like it did around December last year. don't just take my word for it, check it out:
Baltic Dry Index Down 45% From High in June
BDIY:IND BALTIC DRY INDEX via Bloomberg
The most obscure but perhaps the most important economic indicator we've got
other leading indicators are tracking down as well.
i really, REALLY did not want to be right about this.