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Wednesday, June 06, 2007

POTUS ’08:
Candidate Status And Trends For The Republicans
As of 06 June 2007

In no particular order:

McCain: Hurt himself in the debate. He’s been trending down for a bit, this only furthers the fall. He’s going down and out.

Romney: Generally regarded as having been the most successful in the debate. He’s been trending up for sometime. That will go on. He will continually be in the top 2 or 3 R candidates on through most of the primaries.

Huckabee: Was a “pleasant surprise” at the debate. His name recognition and positives are trending up. As more people become aware of him, his stances, charisma, etc, his positives will increase. He’ll be a guy to watch. Will soon be in the top 3 or 4 and will remain so through most of the primaries.

Giuliani: Debate was a mixed bag for him. His support has virtually stagnated. Will fall further out of favor with CRR base and will not be as big a factor in the primaries, especially after NH, as many think. He, like McCain, has no chance of becoming the Nominee.

Gilmore, Paul, Brownback, Hunter, Tancredo, T. Thompson: No real changes with these. None are, or will be, contenders.

Unannounced, but probable, candidates:

Gingrich: Better than 50/50 that he’ll run. Has high positives among CCR’s and most R’s, but has very high negatives as well. Most likely will not be a large factor.

Fred Thompson: Has begun raising money and “testing the waters”. Will announce formal candidacy 1st or 2nd week in July. Has the highest awareness-support ratio, that is, more people who know he is support him, of any candidate in either party. Very staunch conservative views on most issues. Will be sold as the “true Conservative” in the race. Has low negatives, but they may rise as it becomes more widely known that many ex-G W Bush people, such as Tim Griffin, fill his campaign.


And that’s where it stands as of now. I’ll have a Democratic race update after the next debate.

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